Risks and Opportunities in 2017 2017 is going to be an interesting year. After an eventful 2016, and confidence in the predictability of polling all but eliminated by the surprise outcomes in both the U.S. Presidential election and the United Kingdom’s referendum on staying in the European Union, we are probably all wondering what the…
Global Economic Update One of the largest challenges in financial markets over the past few years has been a steadily weakening global economic environment. This has led to aggressive bond buying and interest rate cuts by Central Banks from around the world, and increased anxiety over events that could have a significant impact on economic…
The generally unexpected win for the “Leave” option in the referendum on whether the United Kingdom should stay in the European Union (the commonly called Brexit) shook up financial markets around the world, with sharp declines in the first two trading days following the vote. The initial global impact was a loss of nearly $2…
The First Quarter Was a Wild Ride Just over five weeks into the new year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost nearly 1,800 points for the year and the index was off to its worst start ever. Shortly thereafter, two major oil producing, Saudi Arabia and Russia, signaled that they were open to a…
Special Market Update: January 27th, 2016 Stock markets in the U.S. and around the world have started off the year with significant weakness, and volatility has increased to levels not seen in quite some time. Here are a few key points that I see as we evaluate what is going on economically and in the…
Have We Entered a Bear Market? 2015 was a choppy year for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index lower for the year, but able to muster a small gain once the impact of dividends was included. The high for most stock indexes was back in May, more than seven months in the past. The year…
Is The Currency Crisis of 1997 Coming Back? Many of you may remember the Asian financial crisis from the late 1990’s, that caused global currency challenges and affected markets worldwide. While US markets recovered nicely from the crisis, the concern over U.S. export demand was significant, as currencies around the globe weakened. We are again…
The decline that we have seen in oil prices over the past 15 months is one of the largest in recent decades. Many people are shocked to see oil prices drop as much as they have, when just a few years ago it was common to hear talk about “peak oil” – the concept that…
The last 18 months have been tough for bond investors as interest rates have remained low on short-term bonds, and they have gyrated up and down on intermediate and long-term bonds. The crosscurrents of the Federal Reserve wrapping up their bond buying program in 2014 and the expectation of short-term interest rates moving higher in…
August turned in the weakest monthly performance for the stock market since 2012, with the S&P 500 declining by 6.03%, and the Dow Industrials declining by 6.57%(1). Interestingly, there seemed to be no major news event that can easily be identified as the reason for the drop. Many have looked to China and weakening global…